Peak after peak? Peak followed by trough? Gambling and more gambling space wavering
skyrocketing operating choose greed or fear the market outlook? Shenzhen, long and short heads of the major marketing when the heated debate over
June, more than half of the year, in the half of the unexpected sharp rise of the automobile market in the surprisingly cheered the Chinese auto manufacturers, the marketing spotlight to drink alone leaders in the Menxin when more and more disturbed by a series of questions: peak after peak? peak followed by trough ? in the first half so smooth, sharp rise of the automobile market in the second half will surprise reversal? 3-4 quarter automobile market will be upward? down? ? shock narrowing? all car prices substantially increased in the second half of the sales plan, the prices will plunge in the second half? in the first half whether the situation worsen? second half of the overseas market situation? rural and second and third line urban market situation? year 2009 sales to China? Inquiry, on the weekend, China's auto sales leader in a number of the main heads of car prices in 2009, Shenzhen International Automobile Exhibition on Hong Kong and Macao came together to attend the Forum on China Automotive subject, Shenzhen Press Group, Sohu.com cars, auto show organizers jointly organized by Hong Kong and Macao deep br> CSM Automotive Consulting Director of Greater China Vehicle Forecasts, Chinese president Zhang Yu:
market outlook will be hit: exports dropped by 50% and the second half of the expected avalanche of new car
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CSM 12 branches worldwide, specializing in automotive data analysis this industry. I do before the second half is expected to initiate In 2009 a 1-4 month policy to stimulate real output and the new models because of the reason, the growth rate Soon dire predictions last year, is expected in the first quarter fell 20%, virtually no decline in the month to maintain flat .6 If the information from the current point of view, the momentum is very good, because production is very high, the amount of production and wholesale not too bad.
this situation has completely broken the laws of history, policy factors played a major role. policy factors play an important role, is not to say that part of the population because of policy reasons to buy a car in the first half focused on ? to the traditional 7-8 months, the traditional sales season or fine-tune the sales would plummet? the passenger cars from January to April we saw 19% growth in sales, the main entry-level brand, last year some loss, recovery is faster now, the share of own brands, from 27% to 32%, nearly 5 percentage points of the floating is quite good. This is the policy of stimulating and relevant. we are very clear January 1 fuel tax on automobile consumption in rural markets, subsidies. such a good policy to stimulate the growth of the market boom-style, behind which a problem in the end, this is our concern.
outlook main problem lies in the environment above. the world's major the economy GDP forecast, basically all the major countries are declining, the global economic downturn of 2.5%, while the West's leading countries, developed countries fell nearly 4%, as the United States is about 3%, Japan fell more, the euro area also fell more, the new economies of India and China, only upward. this environment the impact of China's CPI, from the highest 10.1% from last year down the latest May -7%. real GDP growth at about 7%, The first quarter was 6.1%, this increase is the lowest record in history, from the economic fundamentals, it can not say that China's economy had improved. It is clear that China's exports are sluggish due to the problem. China has been exporting for 6 months negative growth in the first quarter, the average is -19%, and had improved in March, but April has dropped to -22% of China's macro-export problem, resulting in no growth markets along the coast, resulting in no growth in the large car , all of the growth comes from small models.
the developed countries is a negative growth of private consumption, imports are also negative growth, target large market very optimistic about the economic situation, China's export growth led to the first occurrence of negative growth year on year, which is China has never had the condition. such an international environment impact on the exports of the automotive industry is enormous .2008 a piece of China's auto exports up 24% this car around the first quarter of last year, the monthly growth rate decreased month by month, to start in January this year, 4 months down the growth rate of 70%, (frequently than in the past one hundred percent growth) very large decline, the situation is very serious. It is possible throughout the year dropped by 50% over the same period, while domestic car Hurricane-style market growth and economic fundamentals is a departure from, so we always ask in the end the effects of policy stimulus to sustain the number of months. cars and other follow-up policy, such as encouraging the displacement transferred to 1.6 1.8, etc.; for international Are there other market policies, for example, is not it can continue to advance tax rebate? This is very important. China is now the proportion of car loans is 10%, car loans in China who are in the large car class, if this piece of a promotion of 20 million, 30 million price increase and medium-sized car is better, but so far not much improvement.
outlook problem also lies in international crude oil prices began to increase. in accordance with the past few years statistics, the highest is around 140 U.S. dollars, down to 30 dollars, and now rebounded to 70 dollars. If domestic oil prices also adjust the next couple of months, to stimulate the purchase of 1.6 liters of displacement is the largest, because such purchase price of the sensitivity of most people, the cost for the use of cars have the highest sensitivity. On the other hand, new models introduced this year is indeed very large, more than 60 new cars launched last year, more than 20 foreign cars, The car is not a small revision, the new models are pure. In particular, more than the second quarter to push some of the third and fourth quarters are also some new car launch. This is just the foreign capital, we see its own brand, own brand has launched 60 new models, are concentrated in the third and fourth quarters, so many new cars, nearly 87 new models introduced, resulting in around 320 vehicles in China, what is this concept? Japan 190 , North America, 160, 320 models in Europe together in the middle. We are about 6 million sales, production, support for 320 cars competition. This is the risk and competition which is self-evident. the market whenever there is a slight The decline, which will lead to a lot of cars there is no room to survive, resulting in the first half of next year, after six months or extremely brutal price competition.
According to the above mentioned factors, we forecast a more conservative relative to do that in the second half sales will be relatively down. particularly since June, manufacturers shipped very strong, there should be a 50% increase, but the traditional off-season is what kind of trend? economic situation, especially the role of direct stimulation of the policy introduced after six months, gradually weakened the factors, the off-season still must reach a new low. If the economy does not improve, we did not specifically improvement is expected, which may be one of the words, I want to emphasize is that even such a trend, because the same period in 2008 the market is relatively very weak, so this year about 15% annual growth rate is not very difficult. If we look at manufacturers in the second half plan, basically a more steady increase, and some plan to adjust several times, adjusted to 10% or 15% growth, determine their own brands on the market more optimistic that the relatively higher growth rate. 40%, 50%, or even one hundred percent growth, such as BYD hopes to achieve 40 million units. So, in the second half to reach 6.6 million or so is not very difficult , assuming sustained growth in the second quarter of this year to the end of the year is 25% -30% increase, and very easy to over 700 million.
conclusion, I would like to stress that, in 2009 anyway The market situation is not too bad, even if the market is down, at least 15% growth. The key problems are and we'd like to explore is how the 2010 should do, because the policy should be to end on December 31 this year, this policy After that date will not continue? If you continue, after more than a year, next year's first quarter and second quarter of the time, and so high this year, the base year, what would the situation? if the policy can not continue, the natural question even more serious, there may be negative growth next year. So, I think basically the 2009 is relatively optimistic, even in the second half with some fine-tuning, it should be nothing to worry about, we should be wary of the status and trends 2010.
Vice President of Geely Automobile, Geely Automobile Sales Co., Ltd. General Manager RAIL WAY:
the end of the old policy will have a new incentive: the second half of the ring will increase over the first half, second half of the year on year growth in the second half certainly
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Yale Zhang, the teacher and I hit, and he predicted the second half there are some pessimistic. me a more clear statement of December 31 this year, the first half of the second half of the chain must be growth in the second half of the second half of last year, must be growth. we should not ignore the government, research, the end of the old incentives for new policy will appear.
why the first half of the second half of Central Bibi good? first chain historical data tells us that in the second half is always better than the first half, is very simple a reason. halving the following 1.6L purchase tax policy, if no major problems the Ministry of Industry at the end of December 31, it should not reduce the consumption boom that will arrive before December 31 consumption throughout the year 11,12 The high point in the month. We imagine a series of bad last year, last year, snowstorms, earthquakes, and in June the stock market crash, there is a tight monetary policy, financial crisis; this year? starting from January 1 have tax reform, and now the people down the cost of automobile consumption, as well as the following half 1.6L, as well as cars to the countryside, loose monetary policy will adhere to all policies in the second half much better than last year, so there is no reason to say worse than the first half the second half. It is my view.
In addition, I think the fourth quarter of 2008, has been since the first quarter of this year until now, as the financial crisis in China conducted, I think prove me a theory that China's auto consumption structure is being accelerated by the olive-shaped transfer to the pyramid. In the past consumer focus range of 15 million -20 million, from 2003 -2006 in the consumption structure, the middle is the 15 million olive -20 million range, is now focused on the 10 million -15 million range, then quickly to the transfer of 5 million -10 million range, the financial crisis has accelerated the pace of change. on their own brands, the 6,7,8 month there slightly lower than the first half of the low, it is inevitable that China's urban fringe people farming, harvest, put the money into the hands of something, then buy a car. chain of small growth, big growth year on year. I judge The judge is a comprehensive, high-class cars will be very consistent with the trend of my judgments. Li Chao concerns led to the second half of the prices we rush to increase production at full capacity can not be stable. I think that each plant has a rational judgments, such as Geely Automobile Inventory , inventory, and end-sales ratio generally between 1.5-2.5, and now inventory is very reasonable, very reasonable and very healthy.
KIA sales copy sales department headquarters Wang Dunming:
long-term good, can not be blindly optimistic about the short-term varieties sold a mere .310 6.6 million, selling 12 million people will see an empty
index: 50%
cars are doing here, including Mr. Liu included, I have also one of the cars made from 1992 to the present, all the way to go down, just Roewe He always said, until now not too many forecasters, because too many variables. in the past to do a report on the long-term out, and now realistic. on car market we hope to have a more cautious approach. the contemporary world and the current market, I agree with the concept of Geely Mr. Liu, I some ideas. First, China's car market is why so good? It has a line, Children walk with help and no one helped her mother is not the same, particularly industrial policy now, so now there is a line of support vehicles, industrial policy can not continue to develop, has great influence on the car. Our half of the consumption of 1.6L are not very helpful, why sales are growing? because confidence is increasing. If you leave this line, we can do that development? need to consider.
Second, the same as a family, met this that matter, the general trend of the local can drive it? In addition to rigid demand, the auto sales and economic trends will eventually converge, and if the depth of the world economy has declined, the Chinese auto industry to naive worth considering how far out. So, today, over blind increase will bring tomorrow's issues, economic uncertainty and the level of vehicle tracks in an environment with, at what time this juncture would be reflected in the future.
Third, we are now everyone's income, including all of you veterans have higher income? No, this year will increase? head full of Geely Mr. Liu also know that similar to the increase in profits Dongfeng Honda case, the reduction of income here. car is now a single flower show, the car can not increase wages, and other industries to increase wages? If they can not increase wages, our cars sell to? increase in car sales element is not shown.
Fourth, today we 20% of the industry growth, there is some people happy and some unhappy. the vast majority of companies and brands is still under attack, most of the factors that promote economic growth in passenger car is not very optimistic, I think the auto market there is uncertainty . so blindly optimistic, including all of the auto companies here today for this is not a good thing.
course, there are several factors in the affirmative, the first is certainly the increase in total vehicle; there 1.6L displacement increase is constant, there is the automotive industry confidence index of the auto market is unchanged, we all share. as KIA in 2009, is still relatively stable development, including sales growth is now relatively large, 1 year -5 month the case is not a new car in the industry average. From the beginning in June we have new products, including the November there are new products, the superposition of two new enterprises have a very good looking, we now identify direction, know what kind of way to go, and now production in short supply, the workers overtime. But the second half of the variables, as an industry is concerned, in terms of their brand is still a bit worried, worried about the environment in addition to other, this year particularly the second half of the new models, our brothers and competitors are also very strong. own brand situation is very complex. are to compete in this environment, there is still a factor in the second half of this year stability. in the first half to buy a car with features automobile market and the stock market where a lot of linkage, the stock rose when you are buying, the stock market has also followed up the next.
Li Chao: cautious, optimistic about the situation, you emphasized that care. But the second and third progressive gradient of the market, such as your in Jiangsu Province, Zhangjiagang is just starting up now, and Yancheng not move, when Yancheng moving up, not enough to support long-term bull market a few years do?
Wangdui Ming: This issue we has been discussed, the Chinese auto industry is spring? tell you that in 2012, so the prospects for the development of China's automobile, including all of you are full of confidence. because the Chinese secondary and tertiary markets a huge market, to all of you left a of space, the choice of model space, are each firm's product positioning needs to be done, so I said the car we are confident that the development of the market, and even into 2012, the market environment, policy environment than now fine. just said, 310 varieties to sell 6.6 million really should not be, others 300 varieties will sell 12 million, we have 310 varieties to sell 6 million, so that productivity and economic benefits, we all know is bad. Each input is how much a new car, so few sales of each product, some species will be more, each less than the normal varieties of sales, the efficiency can be frankly not very good.
in China context, regard the benefits of each company to sell it is our ultimate goal. We are not saying that the number of contribution to society, we still have quality. there is no problem in terms of quantity, is certainly growth and high growth in the spring, Spring is still behind the car. Now create a good atmosphere and benefits that we seek.
the Liu and Dongfeng Honda executive vice president:
in the second half and the fight to let me see, let me see and war, advance and retreat see the two empty index variable
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the trend for the entire automobile market and the first half of the estimate, I think it is a difficult task. like the first half of the market late last year estimated for this year, as some people say a lot of tools that the actual situation of 1-5 months over all forecasts. is now simply a very dangerous thing, in general one is the Chinese economy, a United States, Europe and Japan. Secondly, China To confirm that the Government's policy and the economic growth of 7% or more, so that the basic situation of China's auto market is also under the judge did not unfounded. because the reform and opening up three decades, from 1978 -2008, China's average GDP growth was 14 %, average 16.2% growth in auto market, in other words did not say which year is lower than the GDP growth in the automobile market growth.
into this afternoon I read three sentences, the first thing not to be too pessimistic and not say optimistic; the second sentence, there are too many uncertainties, and the third, every enterprise in the same macro-economic background, performance will be different. on the whole I still think we can roughly compare to ensure economic fast growth rate, but there are too many uncertainties, the Chinese economy, the future trend of the global economy is good, the comments of various mixed authority, who says no more convincing. In this case how should I do?
I think a business can not put their business on their faith in the government, and do not just put the car marketing. again, I would like to emphasize, do not just stare at the amount of capacity is a concept must be concerned about the quality of corporate management. If, as now, increasing output without increasing it does not increase profits, the automotive industry, car companies may not be a good thing, at least affect the long-term sustainable development. Dongfeng Honda 1-5 month, our sales volume, sales revenue, profit, taxes are increasing in parallel, I think this will stick to the guidelines in the future. in the second half in the end how to do, and I say joke, and the war Let us see, let me see and war, while marketing to business strategy while further research. Another is the trend adjustment, changes in the market so businesses can not, but the rapid and accurate adjustment of the cognitive, the two variables to advance and retreat. In other words, the market can be a good deal, if also can not cope. For example, in this case, if you maintain the momentum of the first 5 months, the East will face a problem of this is the insufficient production. If not, they would be excess capacity, a modest increase in our approach, additional orders, appropriate to maintain a reasonable stock. so that the early sales for the suppression of the practice is a correspondence, now properly increase the point, the current inventory of Dongfeng Honda, the entire terminal, to gradually expand production capacity, but not in one step. production capacity human resources and other resources should also carefully integrated configuration, or to maintain the compact. human resources in the Every business has its own characteristics, such as CRV in the first half was 40,000, more than 8,000 units per month, this month's sales of 1,200 units needed, can be a small market as a big market, small market share, there are actually different of business management. In other words, do not go up to something big index, in which case if all the small market, so 8000 is a good result over the month .4 terminal is 9000. The same is true mm Civic Dongfeng Honda is a 1.8L car alone, the firm, the more successful the Rye .1.8 L of only Santana more than the Civic car, the other is converted to the consumption of which went to the 1.6L, the Civic last month, the terminal consumption of 8160 Taiwan, more than 7,000 units for three consecutive months, and I think it is better to have some differences, another way may well be a way of existence.
SAIC Roewe - MG brand director Xiao-Jin:
companies predicted to do very painful has never been accurate. business is not to be blindly optimistic when
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Liuzong speak and fight Let us look, let me see and warfare, engineer quite frankly, we Roewe - MG and practice a bit and the war, because the Roewe - MG brands two arms dealers may not be of such strength, but also side while practicing war. Today discuss the second half of the forecast, I do talk such as weather forecasts, said that our business first, not blindly optimistic forecast because I think companies do a very painful, often criticize the leadership, forecasting accuracy never before. really big business for us is a big problem, if you expect too much of the second half will the preparation of large-scale components, as well as supporting plant requirements, will be enormous pressure. Once the second half of the market is not very good and return expectations, the price is bound to be a very great impact.
Now many dealers, including our dealers are not selling a single brand, to sell his many brands, sales of all brands of pressure transferred to the dealers regarded the shoulders up, this year's funding under great pressure, will cause some problems. So Mr. Liu has just talked about, and I very much agree with war Let us see, people do make forecasts 2010 sales compared do see is how to do the next few months. the one hand, support of national policy, on the other hand We also hope that the media, multimedia, consumer confidence guide. More importantly, when the inner strength. Although SAIC Shanghai Automotive is a part of but we do have a difficult development process, this year we spent more money, manpower training is to enhance the combat effectiveness of the first line, reflected in the service, consumers need to master and so on. So his Lianhaoneigong hope to rapid development of the market. Of course we believe that the rigidity of the Chinese consumer demand for the Chinese market that in the long run has been great development space. Our production capacity has reached a very high base capacity, our current production is modular, enterprise production capacity to gradually release out, rather than increased capacity. so on, and on The following are more responsible.
general manager of Dongfeng Citroen car sales Wei Wenqing:
1-6 months greater than the pre-shipment into the terminal stage, the back to lighten up, but car sales growth this year exceeded 20%
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Taishiyanpan need rational analysis, we present here are in the forefront, more emotional, not rational economists then. Now the market is a little strange 1-6 months large car sales, but the terminal to ship out over into the early period, there should be a back to lighten up. According to the traditional slightly higher during the first half, slightly below the second half. But sales declined not because of global factors, seasonal factor is very critical. for the Chinese auto market, Dongfeng Citroen more optimistic, I expected to narrow this year, car sales growth exceeded 20%.
Dongfeng Citroen in the automotive market in the past in this area The not perfect, there have been lingering, some work done this year, market segments in the Elysee made good growth. summarize it, I personally think that Citroen is a very good brand, a very good brand heritage, we should the difference with what other brands should be demonstrated. quite big strategy is to content on brand image and brand to sort out, in the human design, the control aspects of Dongfeng Citroen is a strong advantage. in small aspect is the network. Dongfeng Citroen brand is part of dealers to do the truck developed, relatively weak, and we lean in the promotion of junior management to user-centric done in two ways, you can tap the market opportunities. need a good environment in the second half, just shows the continuation of the policy? I personally think that should continue, the automotive industry, judging by the first half of this year, the state role in promoting the sales environment effect is very obvious. vehicle, or carry too much tax, should give us to create the same environment, the policy should be introduced immediately, so there should be no big impact next year, we hope to continue macroeconomic policy.
Second, China's purchasing power is very strong, their purchasing power should not exceed current levels. core content is necessary macroeconomic environment and social security policy, so that the purchasing power of play. As for the surrounding environment is not good, in fact, car expanded city limits, and urbanization have a very large role in promoting social progress has Feichang large stimulus should be more of a policy to urge the move to buy out. Dongfeng Citroen will use the large and grab a small angle with the opportunity to meet.
Chery vice president, general manager of Chery sales Madrid Ji: < br> 6,7,8 to decreased number of the month, September will be picked up after the market index
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engaged in the sales industry has 8,9 years, I am glad to have the opportunity to share with you exchange. the first half of the market is good, a joint venture brand down the price system is a big shock though, fortunately, this time last year the sales of Chery ranks only in the seventh year, has risen to the fifth . my analysis because the two issues, first is the release of national policy, as well as on the other hand has been since August last year to 12 months, the market fell so badly, so there are not purchasing the shot, so this year 1 - May the entire automobile market data made it clear that the market is good we know the number of .6 months, the market relatively short, according to my personal estimate, June auto sales to be less. This year the car 1-5 months Another feature of the market, national policy is 1.6L less displacement, the June increase in the high-car, especially A0 car, but also the characteristics of 4,5 months. in the second half I think is down to 7-8 months, I personally think that after September the market will rebound.
Volvo Sun Wei, director of the China market:
very tough second half of the manufacturers, Volvo fight were to be fully prepared for
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participants today are very much the industry sales and marketing experience, the 2009 first quarter, we saw some good in this market, signs, particularly in April and May, many manufacturers can see the exciting news, as Volvo in the luxury level, unlike the mid-size car market, then the benefit from government policies, product updates only up response, the new car market to some extent driven by the market. But the next six months is very severe, for each manufacturer are very serious, for the Volvo car, the instability of the global pressure on China's influence, as well as the test of financial pressure dealers, distributors, system professional norms operation, and ability level of the test and the dealer price system also has a severe test, I think will be very tough second half of 2009.
from our point of view, the second half of 2009 is very challenging to do good fight were fully prepared, especially in the second half of this year. On the whole policy of the Government, as well as China, have confidence in current economic terms, through the third quarter is very crucial in terms of the overall market in China in 2009 still optimistic. China's strategy to actively deal with Volvo 1.6 upgrade not a direct positive, our main customer is the senior professional managers, the company's operations which, if encountered cash flow problems, it will affect his delayed car of the program, so look at the situation of China's economy, index, and index of the global economy, to be able to decide.
Changan Mazda Motor Sales Executive Vice President An Xianlin:
will continue into the second half of the first half of inertial growth, they will go out of foam. small-displacement car market share will increasingly see more
Index: 80%
First, our future vehicle development in 2009 confidence in the future in 2009 objectives and tasks are completed in full confidence. Changan Mazda has just started in 2008, began selling in 2009 confirmed the mandate of this year, we gave ourselves a goal, that is, nearly 50% growth target. It is not that what we have predictability, because our own has just started, the base is relatively small. and feel the fundamentals of China's auto industry development no major changes, so the development of Chinese automobile industry has been full of confidence and optimistic attitude.
from 1 -5 development of situation in January 2009, the history of the Chinese car is worth a good summary of the year, 1-5 months of this year, the State handed over the task of stimulating domestic demand, the automobile industry, the results of the month from 1-5 Look, the automotive industry does not live up to the nation's trust, give us a surprise, but also to produce a satisfactory answer. It is said that the central decision-makers are very proud, I feel it very accurate, but also the policies that we feel the time In 2009 The automotive industry will still continue in the first half of the inertia, the second half of the growth will certainly have some.
Second, in the current circumstances, news of success for each company, the floor is abnormal flowers. in the second half in place of products with the manufacturers, the competition will be a new number of differentiation. products relatively strong, the market position relatively accurate, relatively high cost of enterprise development will be faster, also out of some of the bubble, I would like to divide the second half will be opened, not the same as the first half of the simultaneous growth of all, we have rapid development, this is my point of view.
Thirdly, I think in the future low-emission compact car market share will become increasingly large, which is also present an opportunity Changan Mazda, our current product Ma 2, Ma 3 is also based on such judgments, so we have confidence to seize the revitalization of China's auto industry and a good opportunity for China's auto development, the market do a good job.
Wang Jun, deputy general manager of BYD Auto Sales:
between greed and fear, greed
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BYD is a young enterprise, the macroeconomic situation is very Southern to determine good, we put forward in early 2009 goal of 40 million units, when not agree with the view of the development from the market point of view, or the accuracy of our expectations, from 1 -5 months of the situation, we basically achieve the sales levels of last year that this year's market will maintain rapid development, one reason for oil prices, we all know that the second price increase. There are capital markets, investors have been CBBC changes once, they are very strong the market's capacity. for the car, the car as the engine driving the national economy, the last Asian financial crisis, the country is by car and room pull up the property to the economy, this is by car, the National ...
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