The problem of rising stock market is not likely to be severe
Ai Wei those who do not enter. The other, non-recommended long-term investors do not look at my blog, here you need not get any information. This is purely a vision and no real ability of the small retail ignorance opinion, only discussion.
all described in this article will reflect the forecast does not make sense, only the expression of an anxiety episode. I also described in this article would never guess based on investment decisions, this article has nothing to do with the investment. Another , there is the potential this logic (quoted from)
Annual Index :2009-2010 original run forecast map
. the issue of banks how to solve it? (Original From: The original text from the Circle of Friends > only open financing. If there was a time that manufacturing companies can not finance, is about to begin a problem. banks have been very weak, if the chain of manufacturing enterprises in financial problems began to appear,Discount UGG boots, then transfer to the bank may extremely the.
stock market this thing, financing costs almost zero, much lower than the loans and bonds (financing costs), how the expansion of this business to it? not any way to create their own cash, then through equity financing to continue to eat into cash. and this is also a very happy individual investors, are proud to provide zero-cost financing, it can only be so to do, or going to meet the requirements of retail, and no conditions have to create the conditions to meet, or retail investors will complain Ah, how the line.
So, this reasonable valuation point following it in 1500. But if less than this, then there is nothing of the finance function, they still have need to be in the position of the overestimate. China's stock market long-term well or has its reason. This system, as long as harmony, and it was a long time.
want zero-cost retail financing, to show their generosity and for national development can be selfless dedication and great psychological satisfaction, the desire to once every few years will be a great satisfaction. listed companies do. Every few years a zero-cost financing, completed a few years to spend money, how to do it, has also been market financing, they The material was tremendous satisfaction.
So who got the best of retail and public company? The hard to say, a material are met, a spiritual being met. the spiritual and material compare how it is a big problem. I think since the system lasted so long, it seems the two still maintained a good balance between the relative relationship.
So I say, as long as the system to maintain a balance, we see no reason Why Air National .10 In time, do not know. But 30 years later some people may start losing money.
total from the total, 3,000 renal good. these listed companies are not law-abiding out. financing so easy, of course, pay close attention to financing, big flower special flower. This excess capacity, not to resolve the past, new again. This will be the future of the banking sector to counter the .2000-3000 so, and just the quality of loans banks can alleviate the potential the problem of declining, but not so as to bring over-boil some new hidden bad debts. so good. And then,UGG boots clearance, the retail investors are now too rich, not willing to spend it, with 2000-3000 points, and the money ring out to contribute, very good. this thing yet. to do on the outside say that? is a problem.
Finally, the above does not matter to these and other investments, please distinguish between would, I make money from the stock market will be very happy. But the problem is not the case. The following picture book called the result of thought. ; discussion of the issue. I would like to call and look forward to rescue the market may still account for the majority of individual investors, also can be seen from this point, whether out of intention, the majority of listed companies in retail is still very welcome to misappropriating. This there's nothing wrong, as long as we are very happy that the high valuation of A-share market may continue to exist.
2) banking issues. This is a big problem, specifically, I do not know. But I think the problem might still exist,cheap UGG boots, or may not be small. We can recall the last century banking bad debt problems. was still fully state-owned, asset stripping through a lot of ways to solve, with the finances. now they are listed, and if the problem is large enough, eventually may need to address the financial, as is now known as the free market forced the United States did. but not before, since they had listed, so his investors first need to take this part of the risk, and finally it can not bear, it can only rely on finance. dependent on the financial consequences of that harm the taxpayers money, but investors would rely on the relative loss in terms of all taxpayers will be less, and I think the whole, to invest the stock market is relatively wealthy group, so the use of capital markets, as may still be relatively good, although not how to how good it can only be second best. Also, Why banks must have a problem? that I do not dare say, can only say that the probability of problems may be higher, Moreover when these problems will be exposed concrete, this is totally do not know. two dimension, a whether there is a problem, whether one is exposed and when exposed. If the problem is real, then the problem or whether there is exposure. Why is the probability of problems would be more high? can see that, although the last 10 years has done a lot reform, but the banks the book industry profit is too high, this is a curse.
3) the stock market to rise, I think the banking industry can not fully compensate for potential problems, but may be lessened some,UGG boots, to reduce the number of how many are Yes. If the real estate market started to decline, with overseas demand can not be quickly restored, plus more from the stock market can not be cheap money, the problem may be relatively large. If you really need that time to solve the problem with fiscal , for all taxpayers, not good news.
4) If the financing function of the stock market has no way to recover, it had to be resolved through other means. such as local government bonds, corporate bonds, there are other innovative ways to , such as financial derivatives, but no matter how resolved, other means of financing costs relative to capital markets, or will the high side, if sustained, will leave more questions, not as investors in capital markets for economic re- make a contribution.
5) and China's GDP growth rate must remain high as the cost of financing the capital market must be low enough to maintain economic stability, which two are a big problem, and indeed difficult to solve, this is not Designers say that they have any problems, but the overall problem. GDP growth slow down, the economy problems, increased financing costs, a listed company to go wrong. This is the problem? That is, these listed companies does not in itself how to make money, a lot of wealth or consumption of non-stop, we need capital markets to these listed companies continue to blood transfusion, and costs must be low enough, otherwise listed on the problem. To solve these problems together, are very time-consuming and laborious , Another point is that want to solve the problem, if the parties are satisfied with the status quo, that does not solve the problem is not large, is likely to stick to the end, everyone take a few times a roller coaster.
6) described here content, not that I want to see them, but that we might see them.
. above the content, with nothing to do with my own investments, but whim write it. I can not under such a possibility to do investment.
Finally, there is still stress that the logic of this is completely unrelated.
article does not make sense: 2010 Index forecast map
2008 年 run Ai Wei article summary
above is purely personal opinion, do not as an investment basis.
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